Finance

Energy is once again dominating headlines all over the world. Gas and oil prices are volatile, key shipping routes face geopolitical pressure, and policymakers are concerned about supply risks. The renewed uncertainty is a reminder of an uncomfortable reality: the next energy crisis isn’t an if – it’s a when, and a question of how prepared we are. A defining challenge of this decade, and one that now feels more urgent than ever, is how to build a resilient energy system. One that minimises structural dependencies and is designed for rising electricity demand. The imperative of our time: The more we electrify, the less we import fossil fuels. The less we import, the more resilient we become. The course of action is clear: ▪️ Relentlessly scale renewables: Slowing the buildout will not reduce costs. Quite the opposite – delay compounds system costs for the entire economy. ▪️ Fix the grids: As fast as possible, as efficiently as possible, and at the lowest possible cost. Before they become even more of a bottleneck. ▪️ Secure 24/7 electricity supply: When the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining, renewables need reliable backup in the form of battery storage and hydrogen-ready gas fired power plants. But gas should serve only as a backup, with renewables and batteries reducing its utilisation. ▪️ Reduce gas supply dependence with infrastructure and diversification: We must not replace old dependencies with new ones. Diversification of gas supplies is key. And the physical prerequisite is an import infrastructure with buffers. We need the planned LNG terminals, complemented by a nationally held gas reserve to help ensure secure supply in winter. ▪️ Electrify everything that makes sense: The more we can power with mostly homegrown electrons, the less dependent we become on fossil imports. Other energy import-dependent countries like Japan and China have electrification rates that are around 10 percentage points higher than Germany’s. This shows where the path forward lies. Electrification reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, which in turn strengthens overall resilience. The time to act is now.

Last week, China barred its major tech companies from buying Nvidia chips. This move received only modest attention in the media, but has implications beyond what’s widely appreciated. Specifically, it signals that China has progressed sufficiently in semiconductors to break away from dependence on advanced chips designed in the U.S., the vast majority of which are manufactured in Taiwan. It also highlights the U.S. vulnerability to possible disruptions in Taiwan at a moment when China is becoming less vulnerable. After the U.S. started restricting AI chip sales to China, China dramatically ramped up its semiconductor research and investment to move toward self-sufficiency. These efforts are starting to bear fruit, and China’s willingness to cut off Nvidia is a strong sign of its faith in its domestic capabilities. For example, the new DeepSeek-R1-Safe model was trained on 1000 Huawei Ascend chips. While individual Ascend chips are significantly less powerful than individual Nvidia or AMD chips, Huawei’s system-level design to orchestrate how a much larger number of chips work together seems to be paying off. For example, Huawei’s CloudMatrix 384 system of 384 chips aims to compete with Nvidia’s GB200, which uses 72 higher-capability chips. Today, U.S. access to advanced semiconductors is heavily dependent on Taiwan’s TSMC, which manufactures the vast majority of advanced chips. Unfortunately, U.S. efforts to ramp up domestic semiconductor manufacturing have been slow. I am encouraged that one fab at the TSMC Arizona facility is operating, but issues of workforce training, culture, licensing and permitting, and the supply chain are still being addressed, and there is still a long road ahead for the U.S. facility to be a viable substitute for Taiwan manufacturing. If China gains independence from Taiwan manufacturing significantly faster than the U.S., this would leave the U.S. much more vulnerable to possible disruptions in Taiwan, whether through natural disasters or man-made events. If manufacturing in Taiwan is disrupted for any reason and Chinese companies end up accounting for a large fraction of global semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, that would also help China gain tremendous geopolitical influence. Despite occasional moments of heightened tensions and large-scale military exercises, Taiwan has been mostly peaceful since the 1960s. This peace has helped the people of Taiwan to prosper and allowed AI to make tremendous advances, built on top of chips made by TSMC. I hope we will find a path to maintaining peace for many decades more. But hope is not a plan. In addition to working to ensure peace, practical work lies ahead to multi-source, build more fabs in more nations, and enhance the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain. Dependence on any single manufacturer invites shortages, price spikes, and stalled innovation the moment something goes sideways. [Original text: https://lnkd.in/gxR48TK8 ]

My team and I get pitched 5–10 new businesses every week. Mostly from entrepreneurs trying to raise money. If you want your message or pitch to stand out to investors, do this: 1. Start with the problem, not the product. If I don’t feel the pain, I won’t value the solution. 2. Be brutally clear. My team should understand your business in 10 seconds or less. 3. Show traction, not just vision. Even if it's small, show me that the market wants it and you know how to deliver. 4. Tell me why you’re the one. I’m investing in you as much as the idea. Show conviction, not just ambition. 5. Make it a conversation, not a monologue. Curiosity builds trust. Ask good questions and make it collaborative. Keep it simple.

I frequently see conversations where terms like LLMs, RAG, AI Agents, and Agentic AI are used interchangeably, even though they represent fundamentally different layers of capability. This visual guides explain how these four layers relate—not as competing technologies, but as an evolving intelligence architecture. Here’s a deeper look: 1. 𝗟𝗟𝗠 (𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹) This is the foundation. Models like GPT, Claude, and Gemini are trained on vast corpora of text to perform a wide array of tasks: – Text generation – Instruction following – Chain-of-thought reasoning – Few-shot/zero-shot learning – Embedding and token generation However, LLMs are inherently limited to the knowledge encoded during training and struggle with grounding, real-time updates, or long-term memory. 2. 𝗥𝗔𝗚 (𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹-𝗔𝘂𝗴𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻) RAG bridges the gap between static model knowledge and dynamic external information. By integrating techniques such as: – Vector search – Embedding-based similarity scoring – Document chunking – Hybrid retrieval (dense + sparse) – Source attribution – Context injection …RAG enhances the quality and factuality of responses. It enables models to “recall” information they were never trained on, and grounds answers in external sources—critical for enterprise-grade applications. 3. 𝗔𝗜 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 RAG is still a passive architecture—it retrieves and generates. AI Agents go a step further: they act. Agents perform tasks, execute code, call APIs, manage state, and iterate via feedback loops. They introduce key capabilities such as: – Planning and task decomposition – Execution pipelines – Long- and short-term memory integration – File access and API interaction – Use of frameworks like ReAct, LangChain Agents, AutoGen, and CrewAI This is where LLMs become active participants in workflows rather than just passive responders. 4. 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗔𝗜 This is the most advanced layer—where we go beyond a single autonomous agent to multi-agent systems with role-specific behavior, memory sharing, and inter-agent communication. Core concepts include: – Multi-agent collaboration and task delegation – Modular role assignment and hierarchy – Goal-directed planning and lifecycle management – Protocols like MCP (Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol) and A2A (Google’s Agent-to-Agent) – Long-term memory synchronization and feedback-based evolution Agentic AI is what enables truly autonomous, adaptive, and collaborative intelligence across distributed systems. Whether you’re building enterprise copilots, AI-powered ETL systems, or autonomous task orchestration tools, knowing what each layer offers—and where it falls short—will determine whether your AI system scales or breaks. If you found this helpful, share it with your team or network. If there’s something important you think I missed, feel free to comment or message me—I’d be happy to include it in the next iteration.

Open Banking (OB) isn’t a feature - it’s the blueprint for banks to stay relevant in an APIsed economy. But exposing a few APIs is not innovation. Here's what really powers OB - and some myth busting. OB is reshaping how we access and interact with financial services. At its core, it’s about unlocking data and making it securely available through modern infrastructure rails called APIs. But the impact goes far beyond banking. OB is becoming the key enabler of today’s two most dominant business models: —   Platform economics —   Embedded finance Banks play a critical role in this shift - because they hold the data. Enter: 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 This is the invisible technical foundation that allows banks to expose data and services to fintechs and partners. Here’s a simplified breakdown of key components: 1. API Gateway – The secure front door that handles requests and and routes them properly. 2. Consent & Identity Management – Ensures only the right parties get access, with the customer’s permission. 3. Authentication Layer – Uses secure login methods to confirm the customer’s identity. 4. Developer Portal – A gateway where third parties discover, test, and onboard to the bank’s APIs. 5. Microservices Layer – Breaks banking functions into modular services for faster, flexible delivery. 6. Core System Integration – Connects modern APIs to banks’ legacy systems without needing to rebuild everything from scratch. This isn’t just about technology - it’s about designing trust at scale. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗻 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀: 1.     A licensed third-party provider (TPP) sends an API request to the bank to access account data or initiate a payment. 2.     The end-user is redirected to the bank’s interface to authenticate and provide consent. 3.     Once consent is verified, the bank issues a secure access token to the TPP. 4.     The TPP retrieves only the authorized data or completes the payment transaction. 5.    All actions are logged for traceability, audit, security and compliance purposes. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸? 1. Legacy tech – Many core platforms were never built for external connectivity. 2. Security & compliance pressure – Exposing APIs while meeting regulatory requirements is complex. 3. Real-time readiness – Open Banking requires real-time availability and minimal downtime. 4. Governance and ecosystem management – Managing third-party access and maintaining oversight is operationally demanding. Banks should avoid treating OB as just a tech upgrade or a compliance checkbox. It’s a strategic opportunity to modernize infrastructure - something they would have to do anyway. In the era of AI and real-time digital ecosystems, not being able to communicate via APIs is like owning a smartphone without internet access. Opinions: my own, Graphic source: Blanc Labs 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg

Founders are turning down millions in venture capital. Their reason? "I don't need the money. We're already profitable." 10 years ago, unthinkable. Today, common. The Information wrote an insightful piece on "Seed-strapping"—raise once, focus on profitability: → $3.7M revenue per employee (10X industry standard) → 80% lower development costs → 90% less capital to reach profitability The uncomfortable truth for VCs: → Companies need just one funding round → SAFEs never convert → Founders keep 70-80% ownership → The traditional model breaks For investors, survival requires reinvention. New Fund Economics: → Smaller funds with more concentrated bets → Lower management fees, higher carry → Faster distribution timelines → Many smaller wins vs. few unicorn exits New Deal Structures: → Revenue-based financing with capped returns → Dividend rights if companies don't raise again → Profit-sharing without requiring additional rounds New Value Proposition: → Capital efficiency expertise over growth-at-all-costs → Customer connections & distribution support → Operational support over financial engineering → Alternative liquidity paths beyond traditional exits The era of "We'll figure out profitability later" is over. What comes next? Imagine a VC landscape dominated by smaller, specialized firms helping founders build profitable businesses from day one. In this new world, the winners won't have the biggest funds—they'll understand AI has fundamentally changed capital efficiency. For founders: Why dilute when you can profit after one round? For investors: How do you add value when capital isn't the constraint? The answer determines who thrives—and who vanishes in 24 months.

Introducing the Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros, 2025 edition ✨ The music-tech sector has come of age. What started as a relatively niche investment thesis five years ago has matured into a powerhouse market segment, drawing tens of billions in capital since 2020. For five years, we at Water & Music have been mapping these shifting power dynamics through our “Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros” — a living document that traces the complex web of investments, ownership stakes, and strategic acquisitions shaping music and tech. Our latest update adds over 30 new relationships to the map, primarily from growth investments and M&A deals in 2024. The takeaway: Private equity firms and major labels are locked in a battle for control over independent music infrastructure. As indie market share keeps climbing, owning the tech backbone is becoming as valuable as owning the actual rights. Highlights from 2024 include: - Hellman & Friedman's majority stake in Global Music Rights — making GMR the third PRO owned by a private equity firm - Virgin Music Group's acquisitions of Downtown Music ($775M), [PIAS], and Outdustry - Flexpoint Ford's growth investments in Create Music Group ($165M) and Duetti ($34M) - KKR's acquisition of Superstruct Entertainment ($1.4B) and debt financing in HarbourView Equity Partners ($500M) - EQT Group and TCV's co-ownership of Believe (alongside CEO Denis Ladegaillerie), as part of taking Believe private - Vinyl Group's acquisitions of Serenade, Mediaweek Australia, Funkified Events, and Concrete Playground Link to the full interactive chart with sources is in the comments. Would love to hear what you think, and if any of these deals feel particularly standout or surprising to you! #musicbusiness #musicindustry #musictech #privateequity #musicinvestment #musicrights

Today, we’re proud to release the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s latest white paper on climate and development. It offers a clear path for aligning investments to help the world’s poorest countries make faster, smarter progress toward shared global goals. The paper highlights how countries can tackle three imperatives: development, climate adaptation, and climate mitigation. By matching the right type of financing to the right investments, we can maximize impact, no matter the country's distinct needs. Take Ethiopia, a nation that has made remarkable strides but is now struggling under multiple crises—from climate shocks to health emergencies. For such countries, we need new approaches to funding—approaches that don’t pit climate action against human development. This paper outlines a blueprint for policymakers, donors, and institutions to work together, ensuring that resources are directed where they’ll make the most difference. It’s not just about funding more—it’s about funding better. https://lnkd.in/eaqf2GRb #GlobalDevelopment #ClimateFinance #DevelopmentFinance

🌍 We Can’t Afford to Get Climate Policy Wrong—A Look at the Data Behind What Really Works 🌍 In the race against time to combat climate change, bold promises are everywhere. But here’s the critical question: Are the policies being implemented actually reducing emissions at the scale we need? A groundbreaking study published in Science, cuts through the noise and delivers the insights we desperately need. Evaluating 1,500 climate policies from around the world, the research identifies the 63 most effective ones—policies that have delivered tangible, significant reductions in emissions. What’s striking is that the most successful strategies often involve combinations of policies, rather than single initiatives. Think of it as the ultimate teamwork: when policies like carbon pricing, renewable energy mandates, and efficiency standards are combined thoughtfully, the impact is far greater than any one policy could achieve on its own. It’s a powerful reminder that for climate solutions the whole is indeed greater than the sum of its parts. Moreover, the study’s use of counterfactual emissions pathways is a game changer. By showing what would have happened without these policies, it provides a clear, quantifiable measure of their effectiveness. This is exactly the kind of rigorous evaluation we need to ensure that every policy counts, especially when we’re working against the clock. If we’re serious about meeting the Paris Agreement’s targets, we need to focus on what works—and this research offers a clear roadmap. Let’s champion policies that have proven to make a difference, because we don’t have time to waste on anything less. 🔗 Full study in the comments #ClimateAction #Sustainability #PolicyEffectiveness #ParisAgreement #NetZero #ClimateScience

Integration of SDGs and ESG Pillars 🌎 For businesses committed to sustainability, effectively categorizing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pillars can streamline strategic planning and operational execution. This approach clarifies how initiatives within these pillars can directly contribute to achieving broader global goals, thus enhancing business impact and compliance. The Environmental Pillar of ESG aligns with SDGs focused on ecological stability, such as Climate Action, Clean Water and Sanitation, and Affordable and Clean Energy. Businesses that enhance their environmental strategies not only adhere to regulatory demands but also drive efficiencies in resource use, which can lead to reduced operational costs and improved market positioning. Under the Social Pillar, SDGs like Quality Education, Gender Equality, and Decent Work and Economic Growth are pivotal. By focusing on these areas, companies can foster a more inclusive and equitable work environment, enhancing employee satisfaction and community relations, which are crucial for long-term business sustainability and customer loyalty. The Governance Pillar supports the achievement of SDGs related to ethical practices and equitable growth, including Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure, and Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions. Strengthening governance can help businesses manage risk, operate transparently, and maintain compliance with increasing legal standards, securing trust and support from investors and stakeholders. Integrating SDGs with ESG initiatives allows businesses to not only address specific global challenges but also to enhance their strategic planning processes. This structured approach provides a clear pathway for companies to evaluate their impact, set measurable targets, and communicate progress in a manner that resonates with global standards and stakeholder expectations. Furthermore, while the example diagram shows one method of mapping SDGs to ESG pillars, businesses are encouraged to adapt this framework to better suit their specific contexts and strategic objectives. Understanding and applying this integration effectively empowers companies to tackle complex sustainability challenges, paving the way for innovation and leadership in their industries. By leveraging the SDGs as a guide to categorize and prioritize ESG efforts, businesses can ensure that their sustainability initiatives are not only impactful but also aligned with global objectives, enhancing overall business resilience and reputation. #sustainability #sustainable #business #esg #climatechange #climateaction #sdgs #impact #strategy